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Shanghai Shenxin vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018

Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
8/17/2019League OneLeague One · Round 22Jinshan Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin25%
×Draw24%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenxin
1.11
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.72

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 55% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 57 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin
1.17
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.42

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin
2.03
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par
Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw
48%
Shanghai Shenxin or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
76%
Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
75%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
9%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
67%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
30%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
10%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
82%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
51%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
32%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.11

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more
25%
level
24%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
52%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenxin vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Shaanxi Changan Athletic beat Shanghai Shenxin 3-2 in League One on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Jinshan Soccer Stadium in Shanghai.