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Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Shanghai Shenxin — League One 2018

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
4/27/2019League OneLeague One · Round 7Weinan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic57%
×Draw23%
Shanghai Shenxin20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.81
Shanghai Shenxin
0.95

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 91% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 29 away

creates per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.46
Shanghai Shenxin
0.97

allows per match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic
0.93
Shanghai Shenxin
2.17

finishing

Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shaanxi Changan Athletic ↓

Shanghai Shenxin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shaanxi Changan Athletic or draw
80%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic or Shanghai Shenxin
77%
Draw or Shanghai Shenxin
43%

Winning margin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
33%
Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
84%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
54%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
27%
Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
61%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
25%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
75%
Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.93 · 56 matches

Shanghai Shenxin away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.46 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.81

Shanghai Shenxin attack 0.97 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
57%
level
23%
Shanghai Shenxin scores more
20%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shaanxi Changan Athletic vs Shanghai Shenxin

Shaanxi Changan Athletic beat Shanghai Shenxin 2-0 in League One on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Weinan Sports Center Stadium in Weinan.