Shanghai Shenxin 0–3 Nantong Zhiyun: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenxin

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Nantong Zhiyun

5/4/2019

League One · Round 8Jinshan Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin24%

×Draw24%

Nantong Zhiyun52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenxinExpected goals in this matchNantong Zhiyun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.70

Shanghai Shenxin

1.06

Nantong Zhiyun

1.70

Nantong Zhiyun creates 60% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

1.17

creates per match

1.38

2.03

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin

1.17

Nantong Zhiyun

1.38

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin

2.03

Nantong Zhiyun

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Nantong Zhiyun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw

48%

Shanghai Shenxin or Nantong Zhiyun

76%

Draw or Nantong Zhiyun

76%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+

9%

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals

65%

Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals

29%

Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals

9%

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

82%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

51%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)

31%

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Nantong Zhiyun away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.96 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.06

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.38 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more

24%

level

24%

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

52%

Nantong Zhiyun at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff