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Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenxin — League One 2018

Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
8/24/2019League OneLeague One · Round 23Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Nantong Zhiyun58%
×Draw22%
Shanghai Shenxin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantong Zhiyun
1.87
Shanghai Shenxin
0.97

Nantong Zhiyun creates 93% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 31 away

creates per match

Nantong Zhiyun
1.58
Shanghai Shenxin
1.03

allows per match

Nantong Zhiyun
0.91
Shanghai Shenxin
2.16

finishing

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Zhiyun ↓

Shanghai Shenxin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nantong Zhiyun or draw
81%
Nantong Zhiyun or Shanghai Shenxin
78%
Draw or Shanghai Shenxin
42%

Winning margin

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+
34%
Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals
85%
Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals
56%
Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals
29%
Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
62%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
25%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)
75%
Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Zhiyun at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.91 · 79 matches

Shanghai Shenxin away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Zhiyun attack 1.58 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.87

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.03 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nantong Zhiyun scores more
58%
level
22%
Shanghai Shenxin scores more
19%

Nantong Zhiyun at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantong Zhiyun vs Shanghai Shenxin

Shanghai Shenxin beat Nantong Zhiyun 2-1 in League One on August 24, 2019.

The match was played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Rugao.