Shanghai Shenxin 3–2 Meizhou Meixian Techand

Shanghai Shenxin

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Meizhou Meixian Techand

4/14/2018

League One · Round 6Jinshan Soccer Stadium (Shanghai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin35%

×Draw23%

Meizhou Meixian Techand42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenxinExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Meixian Techand

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.68

Shanghai Shenxin

1.52

Meizhou Meixian Techand

1.68

Meizhou Meixian Techand creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 30 away

1.17

creates per match

1.33

2.03

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin

1.17

Meizhou Meixian Techand

1.33

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin

2.03

Meizhou Meixian Techand

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Meizhou Meixian Techand →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw

58%

Shanghai Shenxin or Meizhou Meixian Techand

77%

Draw or Meizhou Meixian Techand

65%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+

17%

Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals

78%

Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals

45%

Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals

20%

Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals

81%

Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals

50%

Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)

46%

Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.52

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.33 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more

35%

level

23%

Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more

42%

Meizhou Meixian Techand at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Meizhou Meixian Techand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff