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Meizhou Meixian Techand vs Shanghai Shenxin — League One 2018

Meizhou Meixian Techand
Meizhou Meixian Techand
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
8/4/2019League OneLeague One · Round 20Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Meizhou Meixian Techand52%
×Draw23%
Shanghai Shenxin25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.78
Shanghai Shenxin
1.15

Meizhou Meixian Techand creates 55% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 31 away

creates per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.40
Shanghai Shenxin
1.03

allows per match

Meizhou Meixian Techand
1.27
Shanghai Shenxin
2.16

finishing

Meizhou Meixian Techand+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Meixian Techand ↓

Shanghai Shenxin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Meizhou Meixian Techand or draw
75%
Meizhou Meixian Techand or Shanghai Shenxin
77%
Draw or Shanghai Shenxin
48%

Winning margin

Meizhou Meixian Techand wins by 2+
29%
Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Meizhou Meixian Techand 1+ goals
83%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 2+ goals
53%
Meizhou Meixian Techand 3+ goals
26%
Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
68%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
32%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Meixian Techand (draw refunded)
68%
Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Meixian Techand at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.27 · 30 matches

Shanghai Shenxin away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Meixian Techand attack 1.40 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.78

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.03 + Meizhou Meixian Techand defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Meizhou Meixian Techand scores more
52%
level
23%
Shanghai Shenxin scores more
25%

Meizhou Meixian Techand at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Meizhou Meixian Techand will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Meizhou Meixian Techand vs Shanghai Shenxin

Meizhou Meixian Techand beat Shanghai Shenxin 1-0 in League One on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Meixian Tsang Hin-chi Stadium in Meixian.