Shanghai Shenxin 1–2 Meizhou Kejia: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenxin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Meizhou Kejia

4/21/2018

League One · Round 7Jinshan Soccer Stadium (Shanghai)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin28%

×Draw23%

Meizhou Kejia49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenxinExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.76

Shanghai Shenxin

1.27

Meizhou Kejia

1.76

Meizhou Kejia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 63 away

1.17

creates per match

1.49

2.03

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin

1.17

Meizhou Kejia

1.49

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin

2.03

Meizhou Kejia

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw

51%

Shanghai Shenxin or Meizhou Kejia

77%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

72%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+

12%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals

72%

Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals

36%

Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals

14%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

83%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

52%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)

36%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.38 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.49 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more

28%

level

23%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

49%

Meizhou Kejia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff