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Meizhou Kejia vs Shanghai Shenxin — League One 2018

Meizhou Kejia
Meizhou Kejia
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
11/2/2019League OneLeague One · Round 30Huitang Stadium (Wuhua)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Meizhou Kejia57%
×Draw22%
Shanghai Shenxin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meizhou Kejia
1.98
Shanghai Shenxin
1.11

Meizhou Kejia creates 78% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 29 away

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.79
Shanghai Shenxin
0.97

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia
1.26
Shanghai Shenxin
2.17

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Shanghai Shenxin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw
79%
Meizhou Kejia or Shanghai Shenxin
78%
Draw or Shanghai Shenxin
43%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+
34%
Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals
86%
Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals
59%
Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals
31%
Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
67%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
30%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)
73%
Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.26 · 58 matches

Shanghai Shenxin away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.79 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Shanghai Shenxin attack 0.97 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more
57%
level
22%
Shanghai Shenxin scores more
21%

Meizhou Kejia at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Meizhou Kejia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Meizhou Kejia 2–0 Shanghai Shenxin

Meizhou Kejia beat Shanghai Shenxin 2-0 in League One on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Huitang Stadium (Wuhua).