Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shanghai Shenxin vs Hangzhou Greentown — League One 2018

Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
9/28/2019League OneLeague One · Round 27Jinshan Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin23%
×Draw23%
Hangzhou Greentown54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenxin
1.15
Hangzhou Greentown
1.87

Hangzhou Greentown creates 63% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 56 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin
1.17
Hangzhou Greentown
1.71

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin
2.03
Hangzhou Greentown
1.13

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par
Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Hangzhou Greentown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw
46%
Shanghai Shenxin or Hangzhou Greentown
77%
Draw or Hangzhou Greentown
77%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
9%
Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
68%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
32%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
11%
Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
85%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
56%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
30%
Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Hangzhou Greentown away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.13 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.71 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more
23%
level
23%
Hangzhou Greentown scores more
54%

Hangzhou Greentown at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenxin vs Hangzhou Greentown

Hangzhou Greentown beat Shanghai Shenxin 2-1 in League One on September 28, 2019.

The match was played at Jinshan Soccer Stadium in Shanghai.