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Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenxin — League One 2018

Hangzhou Greentown
Hangzhou Greentown
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
4/1/2018League OneLeague One · Round 3Yellow Dragon Sports Center (Hangzhou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Hangzhou Greentown60%
×Draw21%
Shanghai Shenxin19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hangzhou Greentown
2.02
Shanghai Shenxin
1.04

Hangzhou Greentown creates 94% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 31 away

creates per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.89
Shanghai Shenxin
1.03

allows per match

Hangzhou Greentown
1.04
Shanghai Shenxin
2.16

finishing

Hangzhou Greentown+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hangzhou Greentown ↓

Shanghai Shenxin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hangzhou Greentown or draw
81%
Hangzhou Greentown or Shanghai Shenxin
79%
Draw or Shanghai Shenxin
40%

Winning margin

Hangzhou Greentown wins by 2+
36%
Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hangzhou Greentown 1+ goals
87%
Hangzhou Greentown 2+ goals
60%
Hangzhou Greentown 3+ goals
33%
Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
65%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
28%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hangzhou Greentown (draw refunded)
76%
Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hangzhou Greentown at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.04 · 54 matches

Shanghai Shenxin away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hangzhou Greentown attack 1.89 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.02

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.03 + Hangzhou Greentown defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hangzhou Greentown scores more
60%
level
21%
Shanghai Shenxin scores more
19%

Hangzhou Greentown at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hangzhou Greentown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hangzhou Greentown vs Shanghai Shenxin

Shanghai Shenxin beat Hangzhou Greentown 4-3 in League One on April 1, 2018.

The match was played at Yellow Dragon Sports Center (Hangzhou).