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Shanghai Shenxin vs Guizhou Zhicheng — League One 2018

Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
9/7/2019League OneLeague One · Round 21Jinshan Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin32%
×Draw25%
Guizhou Zhicheng43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenxin
1.27
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.52

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 20% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 41 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin
1.17
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.05

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin
2.00
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.37

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw
57%
Shanghai Shenxin or Guizhou Zhicheng
75%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
68%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
14%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
72%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
36%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
14%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
78%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
45%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
42%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 29 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.37 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.05 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more
32%
level
25%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
43%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenxin vs Guizhou Zhicheng

Guizhou Zhicheng beat Shanghai Shenxin 1-0 in League One on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Jinshan Soccer Stadium in Shanghai.