Guizhou Zhicheng 1–4 Shanghai Shenxin

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Shanghai Shenxin

4/20/2019

League One · Round 6Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng53%

×Draw24%

Shanghai Shenxin23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenxin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.07

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.73

Shanghai Shenxin

1.07

Guizhou Zhicheng creates 62% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 29 away

1.30

creates per match

0.97

1.18

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.30

Shanghai Shenxin

0.97

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.18

Shanghai Shenxin

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Shanghai Shenxin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

77%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Shanghai Shenxin

76%

Draw or Shanghai Shenxin

47%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

29%

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

82%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

52%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

25%

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals

66%

Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals

29%

Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

69%

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.18 · 40 matches

Shanghai Shenxin away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.17 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.30 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Shanghai Shenxin attack 0.97 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

53%

level

24%

Shanghai Shenxin scores more

23%

Guizhou Zhicheng at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Guizhou Zhicheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff