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Shanghai Shenxin vs Beijing Baxy — League One 2018

Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
9/14/2019League OneLeague One · Round 25Jinshan Soccer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Shenxin33%
×Draw25%
Beijing Baxy42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenxin
1.36
Beijing Baxy
1.55

Beijing Baxy creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 71 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenxin
1.17
Beijing Baxy
1.07

allows per match

Shanghai Shenxin
2.03
Beijing Baxy
1.56

finishing

Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par
Beijing Baxy+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenxin ↓

Beijing Baxy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenxin or draw
58%
Shanghai Shenxin or Beijing Baxy
75%
Draw or Beijing Baxy
67%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
15%
Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
74%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
39%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
16%
Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
79%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
46%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
44%
Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenxin at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

Beijing Baxy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.56 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.17 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.36

Beijing Baxy attack 1.07 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shanghai Shenxin scores more
33%
level
25%
Beijing Baxy scores more
42%

Beijing Baxy at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenxin vs Beijing Baxy

Beijing Baxy beat Shanghai Shenxin 2-1 in League One on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Jinshan Soccer Stadium in Shanghai.