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Beijing Baxy vs Shanghai Shenxin — League One 2018

Beijing Baxy
Beijing Baxy
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shanghai Shenxin
Shanghai Shenxin
11/3/2018League OneLeague One · Round 30Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium (Beijing)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Beijing Baxy53%
×Draw23%
Shanghai Shenxin23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Beijing Baxy
1.77
Shanghai Shenxin
1.09

Beijing Baxy creates 62% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 31 away

creates per match

Beijing Baxy
1.39
Shanghai Shenxin
1.03

allows per match

Beijing Baxy
1.15
Shanghai Shenxin
2.16

finishing

Beijing Baxy+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenxin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Baxy ↓

Shanghai Shenxin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Beijing Baxy or draw
77%
Beijing Baxy or Shanghai Shenxin
77%
Draw or Shanghai Shenxin
47%

Winning margin

Beijing Baxy wins by 2+
30%
Shanghai Shenxin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Beijing Baxy 1+ goals
83%
Beijing Baxy 2+ goals
53%
Beijing Baxy 3+ goals
26%
Shanghai Shenxin 1+ goals
66%
Shanghai Shenxin 2+ goals
30%
Shanghai Shenxin 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Beijing Baxy (draw refunded)
69%
Shanghai Shenxin (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Baxy at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Shanghai Shenxin away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Baxy attack 1.39 + Shanghai Shenxin defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.77

Shanghai Shenxin attack 1.03 + Beijing Baxy defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Beijing Baxy scores more
53%
level
23%
Shanghai Shenxin scores more
23%

Beijing Baxy at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Beijing Baxy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Beijing Baxy 2–0 Shanghai Shenxin

Beijing Baxy beat Shanghai Shenxin 2-0 in League One on November 3, 2018.

The match was played at Beijing Olympic Sports Centre Stadium (Beijing).