Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon — FA Cup 2019
Qingdao Jonoon score first in only 15% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 4+ matches
Shanghai Shenhua39%
Qingdao Jonoon37%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 10 home / 4 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Shanghai Shenhua ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches
Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.20 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.48
Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.75 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.43
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Shanghai Shenhua at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Shanghai Shenhua have won 3 in a row
- Shanghai Shenhua have won 8 of the last 8 meetings
- Both teams score in 77% of Qingdao Jonoon’s matches
- 47% of Qingdao Jonoon’s goals come after the 75th minute
- 67% of Shanghai Shenhua’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Both sides lean high-scoring (67% and 62% over 2.5)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Shanghai Shenhua host Qingdao Jonoon on Tuesday, 21 July 2026 at 07:00. The match is part of the FA Cup 2019/2020 season.
Shanghai Shenhua face Qingdao Jonoon (FA Cup)
FA Cup returns with Shanghai Shenhua hosting Qingdao Jonoon. Match starts July 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Shanghai Shenhua host Qingdao Jonoon at Shanghai Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.