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Shanghai Shenhua vs Qingdao Jonoon — Super League 2026

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Qingdao Jonoon
Qingdao Jonoon
M. Gueye 52'
J. Teixeira 46'
4/22/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 7Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua66%
×Draw18%
Qingdao Jonoon16%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
2.44
Qingdao Jonoon
1.13

Shanghai Shenhua creates 116% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
2.49
Qingdao Jonoon
1.19

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.07
Qingdao Jonoon
2.38

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.18scores more
Qingdao Jonoon-0.08on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Qingdao Jonoon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
84%
Shanghai Shenhua or Qingdao Jonoon
82%
Draw or Qingdao Jonoon
34%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
44%
Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
91%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
70%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
43%
Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals
68%
Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals
31%
Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
80%
Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.07 · 9 matches

Qingdao Jonoon away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.38 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.49 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.44

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.19 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
66%
level
18%
Qingdao Jonoon scores more
16%

Shanghai Shenhua at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
Mu PengfeiQingdao JonoonQingdao Jonoon · G
9.3

Match Events

13'
Liu Junshuai
20'
Cheuk-Pan Ngan
21'
João Carlos Teixeira
45+3'
Nemanja Anđelković
46'
Luo Senwen← Ngan Cheuk-Pan
46'
J. Teixeira
52'
M. Gueye↳ W. Manafa
53'
Makhtar GueyeGoal confirmed
59'
Tianyi Gao
59'
Long Song
60'
Li Suda← Song Long
65'
Liu Chengyu← Rafael Ratao
65'
Yang Haoyu← Gao Tianyi
71'
Zhang Wei← Wang Qiao
71'
Zheng Cuanhui← Jin Yonghao
77'
Xie Pengfei← J. Teixeira
78'
Che Shiwei← Sun Zheng'ao
84'
Haijian Wang
86'
Xu Haoyang← Wu Xi
90+7'
Haoyang Xu

Possession

56%Shanghai

Shots

21Shanghai

Pass accuracy

50%Shanghai

Statistics

ShanghaiQingdao
Overview
56%Possession44%
21Total Shots10
3.76Expected Goals (xG)0.83
9Corners4
19Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots10
8On Target3
6Off Target3
7Blocked4
16Inside Box4
5Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
475Total Passes368
405Accurate Passes309
85%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves6
Discipline
19Fouls9
4Yellow Cards4
1Offsides1

Super League: Shanghai Shenhua 2–0 Qingdao Jonoon

Shanghai Shenhua beat Qingdao Jonoon 2-0 in Super League on April 22, 2026.

Goals: J. Teixeira (46'), M. Gueye (52').

Shanghai Shenhua controlled possession (56%) and registered 21 shots to 10.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.