Qingdao Jonoon 0–2 Shanghai Shenhua: Result & Stats

Qingdao Jonoon

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

Yu Hanchao 90'

Liu Chengyu 90'

8/23/2025

Super League · Round 22Qingdao Youth Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Qingdao Jonoon37%

×Draw23%

Shanghai Shenhua40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Qingdao JonoonExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.68

Qingdao Jonoon

1.61

Shanghai Shenhua

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.74

creates per match

1.85

1.50

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.74

Shanghai Shenhua

1.85

allows per match

Qingdao Jonoon

1.50

Shanghai Shenhua

1.48

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

Qingdao Jonoon-0.57scores less

Shanghai Shenhua-0.42scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Jonoon ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Qingdao Jonoon or draw

60%

Qingdao Jonoon or Shanghai Shenhua

77%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

63%

Winning margin

Qingdao Jonoon wins by 2+

18%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Qingdao Jonoon 1+ goals

80%

Qingdao Jonoon 2+ goals

48%

Qingdao Jonoon 3+ goals

22%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

81%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

50%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Jonoon (draw refunded)

48%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Jonoon at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Jonoon attack 1.74 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.61

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.85 + Qingdao Jonoon defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Qingdao Jonoon scores more

37%

level

23%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

40%

Shanghai Shenhua at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Teixeira

Shanghai Shenhua · M

8.5

Match Events

42'

João Carlos Teixeira

45+1'

Wellington Silva

45'

Luís AsuéGoal cancelled

46'

Zhang Chi← Jin Yonghao

46'

I. Amadou← L. Ke

46'

Yang Haoyu← Xu Haoyang

46'

Yu Hanchao← Andre Luis

53'

Song Long← Wei Suowei

59'

Luís AsuéGoal cancelled

60'

Liu Junshuai

63'

Xiao Kun← Lin Chuangyi

77'

Wang Haijian← Gao Tianyi

78'

Che Shiwei← Filipe Augusto

78'

Luo Senwen← Mijit Mewlan

83'

Liu Chengyu← L. Asue

85'

Chenjie Zhu

88'

Sha Yibo← Liu Junshuai

90+3'

Xiao Kun

90+2'

Didier Lamkel Zé

90'

Yu Hanchao↳ Chan Shinichi

90'

Liu Chengyu↳ J. Teixeira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QingdaoShanghai

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots17

1.66Expected Goals (xG)1.93

4Corners8

16Fouls10

Shots

15Total Shots17

5On Target7

9Off Target7

1Blocked3

9Inside Box14

6Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

380Total Passes457

311Accurate Passes399

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

16Fouls10

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2