Shanghai Shenhua 2–1 Meizhou Kejia: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Meizhou Kejia

7/17/2023

Super League · Round 17Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua57%

×Draw22%

Meizhou Kejia21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.08

Shanghai Shenhua

1.93

Meizhou Kejia

1.08

Shanghai Shenhua creates 79% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 62 away

1.86

creates per match

0.94

1.23

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.86

Meizhou Kejia

0.94

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

Meizhou Kejia

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

79%

Shanghai Shenhua or Meizhou Kejia

78%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

43%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

33%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

85%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

57%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

30%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

66%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

29%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

73%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Meizhou Kejia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

57%

level

22%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

21%

Shanghai Shenhua at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff