Meizhou Kejia 1–3 Shanghai Shenhua: Result & Stats

Meizhou Kejia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

5/6/2025

Super League · Round 11Wuhua County Olympic Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Meizhou Kejia34%

×Draw25%

Shanghai Shenhua41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meizhou KejiaExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.50

Meizhou Kejia

1.35

Shanghai Shenhua

1.50

Shanghai Shenhua creates 11% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 119 away

1.48

creates per match

1.43

1.56

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.48

Shanghai Shenhua

1.43

allows per match

Meizhou Kejia

1.56

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meizhou Kejia ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Meizhou Kejia or draw

59%

Meizhou Kejia or Shanghai Shenhua

75%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

66%

Winning margin

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

15%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

74%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

39%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

15%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

78%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

44%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

46%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meizhou Kejia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.56 · 62 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.48 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.43 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Meizhou Kejia scores more

34%

level

25%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

41%

Shanghai Shenhua at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff