Shanghai Shenhua 1–0 Hebei Zhongji: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hebei Zhongji

7/7/2022

Super League · Round 9Jinzhou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua61%

×Draw21%

Hebei Zhongji19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchHebei Zhongji

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.08

Shanghai Shenhua

2.10

Hebei Zhongji

1.08

Shanghai Shenhua creates 94% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 67 away

1.86

creates per match

0.94

1.23

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.86

Hebei Zhongji

0.94

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

Hebei Zhongji

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Hebei Zhongji →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

81%

Shanghai Shenhua or Hebei Zhongji

79%

Draw or Hebei Zhongji

39%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

37%

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

88%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

62%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

35%

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals

66%

Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals

29%

Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

76%

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Hebei Zhongji away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.34 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Hebei Zhongji defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.10

Hebei Zhongji attack 0.94 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

61%

level

21%

Hebei Zhongji scores more

19%

Shanghai Shenhua at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff