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Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2018

Hebei Zhongji
Hebei Zhongji
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhuaadvanced
11/10/2020Super LeagueSuper League · 7th Place FinalSuzhou City Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Hebei Zhongji28%
×Draw24%
Shanghai Shenhua48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hebei Zhongji
1.22
Shanghai Shenhua
1.67

Shanghai Shenhua creates 37% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 119 away

creates per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.21
Shanghai Shenhua
1.43

allows per match

Hebei Zhongji
1.90
Shanghai Shenhua
1.23

finishing

Hebei Zhongji+0.00on par
Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hebei Zhongji ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hebei Zhongji or draw
52%
Hebei Zhongji or Shanghai Shenhua
76%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
72%

Winning margin

Hebei Zhongji wins by 2+
11%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hebei Zhongji 1+ goals
70%
Hebei Zhongji 2+ goals
34%
Hebei Zhongji 3+ goals
12%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
81%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
50%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hebei Zhongji (draw refunded)
37%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hebei Zhongji at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.90 · 68 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hebei Zhongji attack 1.21 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.43 + Hebei Zhongji defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hebei Zhongji scores more
28%
level
24%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
48%

Shanghai Shenhua at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hebei Zhongji vs Shanghai Shenhua

Shanghai Shenhua beat Hebei Zhongji 1-0 in Super League on November 10, 2020.

The match was played at Suzhou City Sports Centre in Suzhou.