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Shanghai Shenhua vs Guizhou Zhicheng — Super League 2018

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Guizhou Zhicheng
Guizhou Zhicheng
8/15/2018Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua64%
×Draw19%
Guizhou Zhicheng17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
2.29
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.11

Shanghai Shenhua creates 106% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.86
Guizhou Zhicheng
1.00

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.23
Guizhou Zhicheng
2.73

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Guizhou Zhicheng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
83%
Shanghai Shenhua or Guizhou Zhicheng
81%
Draw or Guizhou Zhicheng
36%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
41%
Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
90%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
66%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
40%
Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals
67%
Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals
30%
Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
79%
Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Guizhou Zhicheng away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.29

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.00 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
64%
level
19%
Guizhou Zhicheng scores more
17%

Shanghai Shenhua at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Shanghai Shenhua 3–1 Guizhou Zhicheng

Shanghai Shenhua beat Guizhou Zhicheng 3-1 in Super League on August 15, 2018.

The match was played at Shanghai Hongkou Football Stadium in Shanghai.