Guizhou Zhicheng 0–1 Shanghai Shenhua

Guizhou Zhicheng

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

3/18/2018

Super League · Round 3Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guizhou Zhicheng31%

×Draw25%

Shanghai Shenhua44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhichengExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.55

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.25

Shanghai Shenhua

1.55

Shanghai Shenhua creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 119 away

1.27

creates per match

1.43

1.67

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.27

Shanghai Shenhua

1.43

allows per match

Guizhou Zhicheng

1.67

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhicheng+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhicheng ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhicheng or draw

56%

Guizhou Zhicheng or Shanghai Shenhua

75%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

69%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhicheng wins by 2+

13%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhicheng 1+ goals

71%

Guizhou Zhicheng 2+ goals

36%

Guizhou Zhicheng 3+ goals

13%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

79%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

46%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhicheng (draw refunded)

41%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhicheng at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhicheng attack 1.27 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.43 + Guizhou Zhicheng defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Guizhou Zhicheng scores more

31%

level

25%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

44%

Shanghai Shenhua at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff