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Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — Super League 2018

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
8/30/2020Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua38%
×Draw24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
1.56
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 122 home / 68 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.86
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.84

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.23
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.26

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
62%
Shanghai Shenhua or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
76%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
62%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
19%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
79%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
46%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
21%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
79%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
45%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
51%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.26 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.56

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.84 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
38%
level
24%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
38%

Shanghai Shenhua at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shanghai Shenhua 4-1 in Super League on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Dalian Pro Soccer Academy Base in Dalian.