Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2–0 Shanghai Shenhua

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

7/25/2020

Super League · Round 1Dalian Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC47%

×Draw24%

Shanghai Shenhua29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangzhou Evergrande FCExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.23

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.64

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 119 away

2.04

creates per match

1.43

1.03

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

2.04

Shanghai Shenhua

1.43

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC

1.03

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw

71%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Shanghai Shenhua

76%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

53%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+

24%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals

81%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals

49%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals

23%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

71%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

35%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)

62%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.03 · 68 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 2.04 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.64

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.43 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more

47%

level

24%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

29%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff