Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin — Super League 2018

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dalian Aerbin
Dalian Aerbin
5/5/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua53%
×Draw23%
Dalian Aerbin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
1.85
Dalian Aerbin
1.17

Shanghai Shenhua creates 58% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 84 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.86
Dalian Aerbin
1.10

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.23
Dalian Aerbin
1.85

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Dalian Aerbin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
76%
Shanghai Shenhua or Dalian Aerbin
77%
Draw or Dalian Aerbin
47%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
30%
Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
84%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
55%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
28%
Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals
69%
Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals
33%
Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
69%
Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
53%
level
23%
Dalian Aerbin scores more
24%

Shanghai Shenhua at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Dalian Aerbin

Shanghai Shenhua beat Dalian Aerbin 1-0 in Super League on May 5, 2023.

The match was played at Shanghai Stadium in Shanghai.