Shanghai Shenhua 1–2 Dalian Aerbin: Result & Stats

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dalian Aerbin

12/9/2022

Super League · Round 30Jinjiang Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua53%

×Draw23%

Dalian Aerbin24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchDalian Aerbin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.17

Shanghai Shenhua

1.85

Dalian Aerbin

1.17

Shanghai Shenhua creates 58% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 84 away

1.86

creates per match

1.10

1.23

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.86

Dalian Aerbin

1.10

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

Dalian Aerbin

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Dalian Aerbin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Dalian Aerbin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

76%

Shanghai Shenhua or Dalian Aerbin

77%

Draw or Dalian Aerbin

47%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

30%

Dalian Aerbin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

84%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

55%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

28%

Dalian Aerbin 1+ goals

69%

Dalian Aerbin 2+ goals

33%

Dalian Aerbin 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

69%

Dalian Aerbin (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Dalian Aerbin away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.85 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Dalian Aerbin defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dalian Aerbin attack 1.10 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

53%

level

23%

Dalian Aerbin scores more

24%

Shanghai Shenhua at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff