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Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan — Super League 2018

Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Chongqing Lifan
Chongqing Lifan
12/18/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Relegation Round - 3Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua51%
×Draw23%
Chongqing Lifan26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Shenhua
1.82
Chongqing Lifan
1.23

Shanghai Shenhua creates 48% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 50 away

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.86
Chongqing Lifan
1.24

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua
1.23
Chongqing Lifan
1.78

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par
Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Chongqing Lifan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw
74%
Shanghai Shenhua or Chongqing Lifan
77%
Draw or Chongqing Lifan
49%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
28%
Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
84%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
54%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
27%
Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals
71%
Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals
35%
Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
66%
Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.23 · 122 matches

Chongqing Lifan away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.78 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.86 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.82

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.24 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more
51%
level
23%
Chongqing Lifan scores more
26%

Shanghai Shenhua at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Shenhua vs Chongqing Lifan

Shanghai Shenhua beat Chongqing Lifan 4-1 in Super League on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Suzhou Olympic Sports Centre Stadium in Suzhou.