Chongqing Lifan 0–0 Shanghai Shenhua

Chongqing Lifan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shanghai Shenhua

12/31/2021

Super League · Relegation Round - 7Kunshan Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Chongqing Lifan34%

×Draw26%

Shanghai Shenhua40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chongqing LifanExpected goals in this matchShanghai Shenhua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.39

Chongqing Lifan

1.25

Shanghai Shenhua

1.39

Shanghai Shenhua creates 11% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 119 away

1.26

creates per match

1.43

1.34

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Chongqing Lifan

1.26

Shanghai Shenhua

1.43

allows per match

Chongqing Lifan

1.34

Shanghai Shenhua

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chongqing Lifan+0.00on par

Shanghai Shenhua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chongqing Lifan ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Chongqing Lifan or draw

60%

Chongqing Lifan or Shanghai Shenhua

74%

Draw or Shanghai Shenhua

66%

Winning margin

Chongqing Lifan wins by 2+

14%

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Chongqing Lifan 1+ goals

71%

Chongqing Lifan 2+ goals

36%

Chongqing Lifan 3+ goals

13%

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

75%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

40%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Chongqing Lifan (draw refunded)

46%

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chongqing Lifan at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.23 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chongqing Lifan attack 1.26 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.43 + Chongqing Lifan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Chongqing Lifan scores more

34%

level

26%

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

40%

Shanghai Shenhua at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff