Shanghai Shenhua 2–3 Chengdu Better City

Shanghai Shenhua

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Chengdu Better City

M. Gueye 38'

Chan Shinichi 16'

Felipe Silva 90', 45'

Wellington Silva 90'

5/1/2026

Super League · Round 9Shanghai Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Shanghai Shenhua50%

×Draw23%

Chengdu Better City28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shanghai ShenhuaExpected goals in this matchChengdu Better City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.33

Shanghai Shenhua

1.85

Chengdu Better City

1.33

Shanghai Shenhua creates 39% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 26 away

2.46

creates per match

1.77

0.90

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Shanghai Shenhua

2.46

Chengdu Better City

1.77

allows per match

Shanghai Shenhua

0.90

Chengdu Better City

1.24

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Shanghai Shenhua-0.03on par

Chengdu Better City+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Shenhua ↓

Chengdu Better City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Shanghai Shenhua or draw

72%

Shanghai Shenhua or Chengdu Better City

77%

Draw or Chengdu Better City

50%

Winning margin

Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+

28%

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals

84%

Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals

55%

Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals

28%

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals

74%

Chengdu Better City 2+ goals

38%

Chengdu Better City 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)

64%

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Shenhua at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.90 · 23 matches

Chengdu Better City away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.24 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Shenhua attack 2.46 + Chengdu Better City defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.85

Chengdu Better City attack 1.77 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shanghai Shenhua scores more

50%

level

23%

Chengdu Better City scores more

28%

Shanghai Shenhua at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shanghai Shenhua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Felipe Silva

Chengdu Better City · F

9.2

Match Events

16'

Chan Shinichi↳ J. Teixeira

24'

Wu Xi

30'

Matheus Jussa

31'

Wei Shihao

38'

M. Gueye↳ Wu Xi

42'

45'

61'

62'

64'

Yang Haoyu← Gao Tianyi

68'

Makhtar Gueye

71'

Liu Chengyu← M. Gueye

73'

Y. Li← Han Pengfei

87'

Abduweli Behram← Matheus Jussa

87'

Liao Rongxiang← H. Hu

90+8'

Wellington Silva

90+3'

Q. Wu← Wu Xi

90'

Felipe Silva

90'

Wellington Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ShanghaiChengdu

Overview

39%Possession61%

21Total Shots11

10Corners4

17Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots11

6On Target4

7Off Target3

8Blocked4

14Inside Box6

7Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

315Total Passes498

245Accurate Passes427

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls10

3Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3