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Chengdu Better City vs Shanghai Shenhua — Super League 2026

Chengdu Better City
Chengdu Better City
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shanghai Shenhua
Shanghai Shenhua
Romulo 27'
5/2/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 10Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 22+ matches

Chengdu Better City48%
×Draw23%
Shanghai Shenhua29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chengdu Better City
1.81
Shanghai Shenhua
1.36

Chengdu Better City creates 33% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Chengdu Better City
2.27
Shanghai Shenhua
1.81

allows per match

Chengdu Better City
0.91
Shanghai Shenhua
1.34

finishing

Chengdu Better City-0.10scores less
Shanghai Shenhua+0.01on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chengdu Better City ↓

Shanghai Shenhua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Chengdu Better City or draw
71%
Chengdu Better City or Shanghai Shenhua
77%
Draw or Shanghai Shenhua
52%

Winning margin

Chengdu Better City wins by 2+
26%
Shanghai Shenhua wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chengdu Better City 1+ goals
84%
Chengdu Better City 2+ goals
54%
Chengdu Better City 3+ goals
27%
Shanghai Shenhua 1+ goals
74%
Shanghai Shenhua 2+ goals
39%
Shanghai Shenhua 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Chengdu Better City (draw refunded)
62%
Shanghai Shenhua (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chengdu Better City at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.91 · 29 matches

Shanghai Shenhua away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.34 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chengdu Better City attack 2.27 + Shanghai Shenhua defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.81

Shanghai Shenhua attack 1.81 + Chengdu Better City defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chengdu Better City scores more
48%
level
23%
Shanghai Shenhua scores more
29%

Chengdu Better City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Chengdu Better City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
Gao TianyiShanghai ShenhuaShanghai Shenhua · M
7.9

Match Events

19'
Rômulo
21'
Shihao Wei
27'
Romulo
45+6'
Mincheng Yuan
52'
João Carlos Teixeira
52'
Xi Wu
54'
Yang Li
66'
Xu Haoyang← Gao Tianyi
76'
P. Delgado← Wei Shihao
76'
Yan Dinghao← Yang Ming-Yang
78'
Yu Hanchao← Wu Xi
82'
Gan Chao← Romulo
90+2'
Dianzuo Liu
90+5'
João Carlos Teixeira
90+5'
João Carlos Teixeira

Possession

48%Chengdu

Shots

11Chengdu

Pass accuracy

49%Chengdu

Statistics

ChengduShanghai
Overview
48%Possession52%
11Total Shots9
1.57Expected Goals (xG)0.59
6Corners7
13Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots9
2On Target4
2Off Target4
7Blocked1
6Inside Box4
5Outside Box5
Passing
48%Possession52%
341Total Passes376
268Accurate Passes312
79%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls13
5Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
4Offsides1

Super League: Chengdu Better City 1–0 Shanghai Shenhua

Chengdu Better City beat Shanghai Shenhua 1-0 in Super League on May 2, 2025.

Goals: Romulo (27').

Shanghai Shenhua controlled possession (52%) and registered 9 shots to 11.

The match was played at Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park in Chengdu.