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Shanghai Jiading vs Jinan Xingzhou — League One 2018

Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
6/10/2023League OneLeague One · Round 9Jiading Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shanghai Jiading35%
×Draw28%
Jinan Xingzhou37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Jiading
1.12
Jinan Xingzhou
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.11
Jinan Xingzhou
1.07

allows per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.27
Jinan Xingzhou
1.13

finishing

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par
Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Jiading ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shanghai Jiading or draw
63%
Shanghai Jiading or Jinan Xingzhou
72%
Draw or Jinan Xingzhou
65%

Winning margin

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
14%
Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
67%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
31%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
10%
Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
69%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
33%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
48%
Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Jiading at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Jiading attack 1.11 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.12

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.07 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Shanghai Jiading scores more
35%
level
28%
Jinan Xingzhou scores more
37%

Jinan Xingzhou at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shanghai Jiading vs Jinan Xingzhou

Jinan Xingzhou beat Shanghai Jiading 1-0 in League One on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Jiading Stadium in Shanghai.