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Jinan Xingzhou vs Shanghai Jiading — League One 2018

Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
9/17/2023League OneLeague One · Round 24Zaozhuang Culture & Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Jinan Xingzhou51%
×Draw28%
Shanghai Jiading21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinan Xingzhou
1.36
Shanghai Jiading
0.76

Jinan Xingzhou creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 62 away

creates per match

Jinan Xingzhou
1.20
Shanghai Jiading
0.58

allows per match

Jinan Xingzhou
0.93
Shanghai Jiading
1.52

finishing

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par
Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinan Xingzhou ↓

Shanghai Jiading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jinan Xingzhou or draw
79%
Jinan Xingzhou or Shanghai Jiading
72%
Draw or Shanghai Jiading
49%

Winning margin

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
25%
Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
74%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
39%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
16%
Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
53%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
18%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
71%
Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinan Xingzhou at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.20 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.36

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.58 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jinan Xingzhou scores more
51%
level
28%
Shanghai Jiading scores more
21%

Jinan Xingzhou at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jinan Xingzhou vs Shanghai Jiading

Jinan Xingzhou beat Shanghai Jiading 2-0 in League One on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Zaozhuang Culture & Sports Center Stadium in Zaozhuang.