Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shanghai Jiading vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC — League One 2018

Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
8/24/2024League OneLeague One · Round 20Jiading Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shanghai Jiading34%
×Draw26%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Jiading
1.29
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.42

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 30 away

creates per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.11
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.57

allows per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.27
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.47

finishing

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par
Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Jiading ↓

Guangzhou Evergrande FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Shanghai Jiading or draw
60%
Shanghai Jiading or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
74%
Draw or Guangzhou Evergrande FC
66%

Winning margin

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
15%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
72%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
37%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
14%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
76%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
41%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
46%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Jiading at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Jiading attack 1.11 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.57 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Shanghai Jiading scores more
34%
level
26%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
40%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shanghai Jiading 0–2 Guangzhou Evergrande FC

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shanghai Jiading 2-0 in League One on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Jiading Stadium in Shanghai.