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Guangzhou Evergrande FC vs Shanghai Jiading — League One 2018

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
4/5/2024League OneLeague One · Round 5Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Guangzhou Evergrande FC48%
×Draw28%
Shanghai Jiading24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.34
Shanghai Jiading
0.85

Guangzhou Evergrande FC creates 58% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 62 away

creates per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.17
Shanghai Jiading
0.58

allows per match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC
1.13
Shanghai Jiading
1.52

finishing

Guangzhou Evergrande FC+0.00on par
Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangzhou Evergrande FC ↓

Shanghai Jiading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guangzhou Evergrande FC or draw
76%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC or Shanghai Jiading
72%
Draw or Shanghai Jiading
52%

Winning margin

Guangzhou Evergrande FC wins by 2+
23%
Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Guangzhou Evergrande FC 1+ goals
74%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2+ goals
39%
Guangzhou Evergrande FC 3+ goals
15%
Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
57%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
21%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guangzhou Evergrande FC (draw refunded)
67%
Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 1.17 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.34

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.58 + Guangzhou Evergrande FC defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guangzhou Evergrande FC scores more
48%
level
28%
Shanghai Jiading scores more
24%

Guangzhou Evergrande FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guangzhou Evergrande FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2–1 Shanghai Jiading

Guangzhou Evergrande FC beat Shanghai Jiading 2-1 in League One on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Huadu Stadium in Guangzhou.