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Shanghai Jiading vs Dantong Hantong — League One 2018

Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
7/30/2023League OneLeague One · Round 16Jiading Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Shanghai Jiading42%
×Draw29%
Dantong Hantong29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shanghai Jiading
1.19
Dantong Hantong
0.94

Shanghai Jiading creates 27% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 15 away

creates per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.11
Dantong Hantong
0.60

allows per match

Shanghai Jiading
1.27
Dantong Hantong
1.27

finishing

Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par
Dantong Hantong+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shanghai Jiading ↓

Dantong Hantong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Shanghai Jiading or draw
71%
Shanghai Jiading or Dantong Hantong
71%
Draw or Dantong Hantong
58%

Winning margin

Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
18%
Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
70%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
33%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
12%
Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
61%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
24%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
59%
Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shanghai Jiading at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Dantong Hantong away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shanghai Jiading attack 1.11 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.19

Dantong Hantong attack 0.60 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Shanghai Jiading scores more
42%
level
29%
Dantong Hantong scores more
29%

Shanghai Jiading at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shanghai Jiading will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Shanghai Jiading 1–0 Dantong Hantong

Shanghai Jiading beat Dantong Hantong 1-0 in League One on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Jiading Stadium in Shanghai.