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Dantong Hantong vs Shanghai Jiading — League One 2018

Dantong Hantong
Dantong Hantong
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shanghai Jiading
Shanghai Jiading
4/23/2023League OneLeague One · Round 1Huludao City Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Dantong Hantong48%
×Draw27%
Shanghai Jiading25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dantong Hantong
1.40
Shanghai Jiading
0.93

Dantong Hantong creates 51% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 62 away

creates per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Shanghai Jiading
0.58

allows per match

Dantong Hantong
1.27
Shanghai Jiading
1.52

finishing

Dantong Hantong+0.00on par
Shanghai Jiading+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dantong Hantong ↓

Shanghai Jiading →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Dantong Hantong or draw
75%
Dantong Hantong or Shanghai Jiading
73%
Draw or Shanghai Jiading
52%

Winning margin

Dantong Hantong wins by 2+
23%
Shanghai Jiading wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dantong Hantong 1+ goals
75%
Dantong Hantong 2+ goals
41%
Dantong Hantong 3+ goals
17%
Shanghai Jiading 1+ goals
61%
Shanghai Jiading 2+ goals
24%
Shanghai Jiading 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dantong Hantong (draw refunded)
66%
Shanghai Jiading (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dantong Hantong at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Shanghai Jiading away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.52 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dantong Hantong attack 1.27 + Shanghai Jiading defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.40

Shanghai Jiading attack 0.58 + Dantong Hantong defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dantong Hantong scores more
48%
level
27%
Shanghai Jiading scores more
25%

Dantong Hantong at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dantong Hantong will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Dantong Hantong 1–1 Shanghai Jiading

Dantong Hantong and Shanghai Jiading drew 1-1 in League One on April 23, 2023.

The match was played at Huludao City Sports Center Stadium in Huludao.