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Shandong Luneng vs Kaya — AFC Champions League 2018

Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kaya
Kaya
11/28/2023AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group G - 5Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Shandong Luneng67%
×Draw18%
Kaya16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shandong Luneng
2.54
Kaya
1.16

Shandong Luneng creates 119% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 8 away

creates per match

Shandong Luneng
1.94
Kaya
0.50

allows per match

Shandong Luneng
1.81
Kaya
3.13

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par
Kaya+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Kaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw
84%
Shandong Luneng or Kaya
82%
Draw or Kaya
33%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
45%
Kaya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
92%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
72%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
46%
Kaya 1+ goals
69%
Kaya 2+ goals
32%
Kaya 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
81%
Kaya (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Kaya away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.94 + Kaya defence 3.13 → ÷2 → 2.54

Kaya attack 0.50 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more
67%
level
18%
Kaya scores more
16%

Shandong Luneng at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Shandong Luneng 6–1 Kaya

Shandong Luneng beat Kaya 6-1 in AFC Champions League on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Ji'nan.