Kaya 1–3 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

Kaya

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Shandong Luneng

9/19/2023

AFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kaya27%

×Draw21%

Shandong Luneng52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KayaExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.05

Kaya

1.42

Shandong Luneng

2.05

Shandong Luneng creates 44% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

0.50

creates per match

1.27

2.83

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Kaya

0.50

Shandong Luneng

1.27

allows per match

Kaya

2.83

Shandong Luneng

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kaya+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaya ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kaya or draw

48%

Kaya or Shandong Luneng

79%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

73%

Winning margin

Kaya wins by 2+

12%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Kaya 1+ goals

76%

Kaya 2+ goals

41%

Kaya 3+ goals

17%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

87%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

61%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Kaya (draw refunded)

34%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaya at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaya attack 0.50 + Shandong Luneng defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 + Kaya defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kaya scores more

27%

level

21%

Shandong Luneng scores more

52%

Shandong Luneng at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff