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Shandong Luneng vs Gyeongnam FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
5/8/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 5Jinan Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Shandong Luneng39%
×Draw25%
Gyeongnam FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shandong Luneng
1.47
Gyeongnam FC
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

Shandong Luneng
1.94
Gyeongnam FC
1.00

allows per match

Shandong Luneng
1.81
Gyeongnam FC
1.00

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par
Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Gyeongnam FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw
64%
Shandong Luneng or Gyeongnam FC
75%
Draw or Gyeongnam FC
61%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
19%
Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
77%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
43%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
18%
Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
76%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
41%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
52%
Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.81 · 16 matches

Gyeongnam FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 1.94 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Gyeongnam FC attack 1.00 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more
39%
level
25%
Gyeongnam FC scores more
36%

Shandong Luneng at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shandong Luneng vs Gyeongnam FC

Shandong Luneng beat Gyeongnam FC 2-1 in AFC Champions League on May 8, 2019.

The match was played at Jinan Olympic Sports Center in Jinan.