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Gyeongnam FC vs Shandong Luneng — AFC Champions League 2018

Gyeongnam FC
Gyeongnam FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
3/5/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 1Changwon Football Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Gyeongnam FC53%
×Draw21%
Shandong Luneng26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gyeongnam FC
2.17
Shandong Luneng
1.47

Gyeongnam FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Gyeongnam FC
2.00
Shandong Luneng
1.27

allows per match

Gyeongnam FC
1.67
Shandong Luneng
2.33

finishing

Gyeongnam FC+0.00on par
Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gyeongnam FC ↓

Shandong Luneng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Gyeongnam FC or draw
74%
Gyeongnam FC or Shandong Luneng
79%
Draw or Shandong Luneng
47%

Winning margin

Gyeongnam FC wins by 2+
32%
Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gyeongnam FC 1+ goals
89%
Gyeongnam FC 2+ goals
64%
Gyeongnam FC 3+ goals
36%
Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
77%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
43%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Gyeongnam FC (draw refunded)
67%
Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gyeongnam FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gyeongnam FC attack 2.00 + Shandong Luneng defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Shandong Luneng attack 1.27 + Gyeongnam FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gyeongnam FC scores more
53%
level
21%
Shandong Luneng scores more
26%

Gyeongnam FC at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gyeongnam FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gyeongnam FC vs Shandong Luneng

Gyeongnam FC and Shandong Luneng drew 2-2 in AFC Champions League on March 5, 2019.

The match was played at Changwon Football Center in Changwon.