Shandong Luneng 4–2 Changchun Yatai: Result & Stats

Shandong Luneng

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Changchun Yatai

3/1/2024

Super League · Round 1Jinan Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Shandong Luneng60%

×Draw21%

Changchun Yatai20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchChangchun Yatai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.09

Shandong Luneng

2.06

Changchun Yatai

1.09

Shandong Luneng creates 89% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 88 away

2.23

creates per match

1.30

0.89

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

2.23

Changchun Yatai

1.30

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

0.89

Changchun Yatai

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Changchun Yatai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

80%

Shandong Luneng or Changchun Yatai

79%

Draw or Changchun Yatai

40%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

36%

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

87%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

61%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

34%

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals

66%

Changchun Yatai 2+ goals

30%

Changchun Yatai 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

75%

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.89 · 121 matches

Changchun Yatai away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.90 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 2.23 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.06

Changchun Yatai attack 1.30 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

60%

level

21%

Changchun Yatai scores more

20%

Shandong Luneng at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff