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Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng — Super League 2026

Changchun Yatai
Changchun Yatai
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Shandong Luneng
Shandong Luneng
10/20/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28Changchun's People Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Changchun Yatai36%
×Draw24%
Shandong Luneng40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Changchun Yatai
1.45
Shandong Luneng
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 123 away

creates per match

Changchun Yatai
1.44
Shandong Luneng
1.76

allows per match

Changchun Yatai
1.33
Shandong Luneng
1.46

finishing

Changchun Yatai+0.00on par
Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Changchun Yatai ↓

Shandong Luneng →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Changchun Yatai or draw
60%
Changchun Yatai or Shandong Luneng
76%
Draw or Shandong Luneng
64%

Winning margin

Changchun Yatai wins by 2+
17%
Shandong Luneng wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Changchun Yatai 1+ goals
77%
Changchun Yatai 2+ goals
42%
Changchun Yatai 3+ goals
18%
Shandong Luneng 1+ goals
79%
Shandong Luneng 2+ goals
45%
Shandong Luneng 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Changchun Yatai (draw refunded)
47%
Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Changchun Yatai at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.33 · 88 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.46 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Changchun Yatai attack 1.44 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.45

Shandong Luneng attack 1.76 + Changchun Yatai defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Changchun Yatai scores more
36%
level
24%
Shandong Luneng scores more
40%

Shandong Luneng at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Changchun Yatai vs Shandong Luneng

Shandong Luneng beat Changchun Yatai 3-0 in Super League on October 20, 2023.

The match was played at Changchun's People Stadium in Changchun.