Shandong Luneng 1–0 Beijing Renhe: Result & Stats

Shandong Luneng

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Beijing Renhe

3/1/2019

Super League · Round 1Jinan Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shandong Luneng66%

×Draw20%

Beijing Renhe14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shandong LunengExpected goals in this matchBeijing Renhe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.84

Shandong Luneng

2.10

Beijing Renhe

0.84

Shandong Luneng creates 150% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

2.23

creates per match

0.80

0.88

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Shandong Luneng

2.23

Beijing Renhe

0.80

allows per match

Shandong Luneng

0.88

Beijing Renhe

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shandong Luneng ↓

Beijing Renhe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Shandong Luneng or draw

86%

Shandong Luneng or Beijing Renhe

80%

Draw or Beijing Renhe

34%

Winning margin

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

42%

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

88%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

62%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

35%

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

57%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

21%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

83%

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shandong Luneng at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

Beijing Renhe away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shandong Luneng attack 2.23 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.10

Beijing Renhe attack 0.80 + Shandong Luneng defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Shandong Luneng scores more

66%

level

20%

Beijing Renhe scores more

14%

Shandong Luneng at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff