Beijing Renhe 0–0 Shandong Luneng: Result & Stats

Beijing Renhe

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shandong Luneng

5/6/2018

Super League · Round 9Fengtai Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Beijing Renhe29%

×Draw23%

Shandong Luneng48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Beijing RenheExpected goals in this matchShandong Luneng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.75

Beijing Renhe

1.30

Shandong Luneng

1.75

Shandong Luneng creates 35% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 122 away

1.17

creates per match

1.77

1.73

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Beijing Renhe

1.17

Shandong Luneng

1.77

allows per match

Beijing Renhe

1.73

Shandong Luneng

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Beijing Renhe+0.00on par

Shandong Luneng+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Beijing Renhe ↓

Shandong Luneng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Beijing Renhe or draw

52%

Beijing Renhe or Shandong Luneng

77%

Draw or Shandong Luneng

71%

Winning margin

Beijing Renhe wins by 2+

12%

Shandong Luneng wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Beijing Renhe 1+ goals

73%

Beijing Renhe 2+ goals

37%

Beijing Renhe 3+ goals

14%

Shandong Luneng 1+ goals

83%

Shandong Luneng 2+ goals

52%

Shandong Luneng 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Beijing Renhe (draw refunded)

37%

Shandong Luneng (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Beijing Renhe at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Shandong Luneng away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.44 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Beijing Renhe attack 1.17 + Shandong Luneng defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.30

Shandong Luneng attack 1.77 + Beijing Renhe defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Beijing Renhe scores more

29%

level

23%

Shandong Luneng scores more

48%

Shandong Luneng at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Shandong Luneng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff