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Shan United vs Ceres — AFC Cup 2018

Shan United
Shan United
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ceres
Ceres
3/14/2018AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 4Thuwanna YTC Stadium (Yangon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Shan United14%
×Draw19%
Ceres68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shan United
0.91
Ceres
2.26

Ceres creates 148% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Shan United
0.60
Ceres
2.22

allows per match

Shan United
2.30
Ceres
1.22

finishing

Shan United+0.00on par
Ceres+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shan United ↓

Ceres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Shan United or draw
32%
Shan United or Ceres
81%
Draw or Ceres
86%

Winning margin

Shan United wins by 2+
4%
Ceres wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Shan United 1+ goals
60%
Shan United 2+ goals
23%
Shan United 3+ goals
6%
Ceres 1+ goals
89%
Ceres 2+ goals
66%
Ceres 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Shan United (draw refunded)
17%
Ceres (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shan United at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Ceres away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shan United attack 0.60 + Ceres defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.91

Ceres attack 2.22 + Shan United defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Shan United scores more
14%
level
19%
Ceres scores more
68%

Ceres at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shan United vs Ceres

Ceres beat Shan United 1-0 in AFC Cup on March 14, 2018.

The match was played at Thuwanna YTC Stadium (Yangon).