Ceres 2–0 Shan United: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Ceres

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shan United

3/6/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Panaad Stadium (Bacolod City)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ceres78%

×Draw14%

Shan United9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CeresExpected goals in this matchShan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

0.87

Ceres

2.88

Shan United

0.87

Ceres creates 231% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

2.58

creates per match

0.82

0.92

allows per match

3.18

creates per match

Ceres

2.58

Shan United

0.82

allows per match

Ceres

0.92

Shan United

3.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ceres+0.00on par

Shan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ceres ↓

Shan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–16%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Ceres or draw

91%

Ceres or Shan United

86%

Draw or Shan United

22%

Winning margin

Ceres wins by 2+

58%

Shan United wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Ceres 1+ goals

94%

Ceres 2+ goals

78%

Ceres 3+ goals

54%

Shan United 1+ goals

58%

Shan United 2+ goals

22%

Shan United 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ceres (draw refunded)

90%

Shan United (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ceres at home — creates 2.58, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Shan United away — creates 0.82, concedes 3.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ceres attack 2.58 + Shan United defence 3.18 → ÷2 → 2.88

Shan United attack 0.82 + Ceres defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Ceres scores more

78%

level

14%

Shan United scores more

9%

Ceres at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Ceres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff