Shan United 1–4 Boeung Ket: Result & Stats

Shan United

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Boeung Ket

4/25/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Thuwanna YTC Stadium (Yangon)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Shan United50%

×Draw20%

Boeung Ket30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shan UnitedExpected goals in this matchBoeung Ket

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

1.77

Shan United

2.30

Boeung Ket

1.77

Shan United creates 30% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

0.60

creates per match

1.25

2.30

allows per match

4.00

creates per match

Shan United

0.60

Boeung Ket

1.25

allows per match

Shan United

2.30

Boeung Ket

4.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Shan United+0.00on par

Boeung Ket+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shan United ↓

Boeung Ket →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Shan United or draw

70%

Shan United or Boeung Ket

80%

Draw or Boeung Ket

50%

Winning margin

Shan United wins by 2+

30%

Boeung Ket wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Shan United 1+ goals

90%

Shan United 2+ goals

67%

Shan United 3+ goals

40%

Boeung Ket 1+ goals

83%

Boeung Ket 2+ goals

53%

Boeung Ket 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Shan United (draw refunded)

62%

Boeung Ket (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shan United at home — creates 0.60, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Boeung Ket away — creates 1.25, concedes 4.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shan United attack 0.60 + Boeung Ket defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Boeung Ket attack 1.25 + Shan United defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Shan United scores more

50%

level

20%

Boeung Ket scores more

30%

Shan United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Shan United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff