Boeung Ket 1–2 Shan United: Result & Stats

Boeung Ket

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Shan United

2/27/2018

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 2Phnom Penh National Olympic Stadium (Phnom Penh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Boeung Ket53%

×Draw19%

Shan United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boeung KetExpected goals in this matchShan United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.78

Boeung Ket

2.46

Shan United

1.78

Boeung Ket creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.75

creates per match

0.82

2.75

allows per match

3.18

creates per match

Boeung Ket

1.75

Shan United

0.82

allows per match

Boeung Ket

2.75

Shan United

3.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boeung Ket+0.00on par

Shan United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boeung Ket ↓

Shan United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–26%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Boeung Ket or draw

72%

Boeung Ket or Shan United

81%

Draw or Shan United

47%

Winning margin

Boeung Ket wins by 2+

33%

Shan United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Boeung Ket 1+ goals

91%

Boeung Ket 2+ goals

70%

Boeung Ket 3+ goals

44%

Shan United 1+ goals

83%

Shan United 2+ goals

53%

Shan United 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Boeung Ket (draw refunded)

65%

Shan United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boeung Ket at home — creates 1.75, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Shan United away — creates 0.82, concedes 3.18 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boeung Ket attack 1.75 + Shan United defence 3.18 → ÷2 → 2.46

Shan United attack 0.82 + Boeung Ket defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Boeung Ket scores more

53%

level

19%

Shan United scores more

28%

Boeung Ket at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Boeung Ket will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff