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Shams Azar Qazvin vs Shahrdari Hamedan — Azadegan League 2018

Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shahrdari Hamedan
Shahrdari Hamedan
9/20/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 5Sardare Azadegan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Shams Azar Qazvin60%
×Draw25%
Shahrdari Hamedan15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shams Azar Qazvin
1.58
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.66

Shams Azar Qazvin creates 139% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 33 away

creates per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
2.20
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.52

allows per match

Shams Azar Qazvin
0.80
Shahrdari Hamedan
0.97

finishing

Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par
Shahrdari Hamedan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shams Azar Qazvin ↓

Shahrdari Hamedan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shams Azar Qazvin or draw
85%
Shams Azar Qazvin or Shahrdari Hamedan
75%
Draw or Shahrdari Hamedan
40%

Winning margin

Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
32%
Shahrdari Hamedan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
79%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
47%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
21%
Shahrdari Hamedan 1+ goals
48%
Shahrdari Hamedan 2+ goals
14%
Shahrdari Hamedan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
79%
Shahrdari Hamedan (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shams Azar Qazvin at home — creates 2.20, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Shahrdari Hamedan away — creates 0.52, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 2.20 + Shahrdari Hamedan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.58

Shahrdari Hamedan attack 0.52 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
60%
level
25%
Shahrdari Hamedan scores more
15%

Shams Azar Qazvin at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Shams Azar Qazvin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shams Azar Qazvin vs Shahrdari Hamedan

Shams Azar Qazvin beat Shahrdari Hamedan 2-1 in Azadegan League on September 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sardare Azadegan Stadium in Qazvin.